Greyhound · Model vs Market
Where the model disagrees with the market, who's actually right? · 6451 settled runners
How to read this. Each runner is bucketed by edge = model prob − market prob.
The bottom row (Model ≫ market) is the value test: these are runners the model thinks
are far better than their price. If actual win% there is ≥ the model's predicted %, the
model's optimism is justified and there's an overlay edge. If actual is below it, the model is
just wrong where it's most confident. Sample matters — a result on under ~150 runners is
marked thin/noise; don't trust it until it's deep (the harness 48-runner edge that vanished at
1,128 is why). Analysis only, not betting advice.
Model vs market
behind 0.0023
| Disagreement bucket | Runners | Confidence |
Actual win% | Model% | Market% | Who's right | Flat ROI |
Model ≫ market
model thinks far better than price — the value/overlay test |
78 |
thin |
11.5% |
13.9% |
9.2% |
market ✓ |
+27.2% |
Model > market
model a bit keener than the market |
2989 |
trustworthy |
5.0% |
8.0% |
5.7% |
market ✓ |
-40.1% |
Agree
model and market within 1.5% |
1916 |
trustworthy |
11.2% |
12.3% |
11.8% |
market ✓ |
-18.5% |
Model < market
model a bit cooler than the market |
625 |
trustworthy |
23.4% |
22.1% |
24.8% |
model ✓ |
-23.7% |
Model ≪ market
model thinks far worse than price — the lay test |
843 |
trustworthy |
44.4% |
32.6% |
40.5% |
market ✓ |
-11.5% |
Verdict (value bucket):
On the 78 runners the model rated far above market price, actual win rate was
11.5% vs the model's 13.9% prediction.
The model was over-optimistic here (actual below predicted), so these divergences
are not a profit signal — the market is the better guide where the model disagrees.
This is the expected result for a model that matches but doesn't beat the market.