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THE GARDENS

R1 12:42 PM R2 1:07 PM R3 1:28 PM R4 1:52 PM R5 2:17 PM R6 2:44 PM R7 3:05 PM R8 3:27 PM R9 3:47 PM R10 4:07 PM R11 4:27 PM R12 4:47 PM

Race 12

4:47 PM
400m · 7 runners
🏁 Result
1st CLOSING MODEL 📍 Place Pick
2nd LARRIKIN PIONEER 💡 Saver
3rd LAST KEY
4th IBROX MAVERICK
✅ Place bet — won outright — CLOSING MODEL finished 1st
✅ Saver placed — LARRIKIN PIONEER ran a place
Competitive Lean
Market and model agree on this runner — win or place.
6
CLOSING MODEL W $1.90·P $1.18
win or place
Market and model both rate this runner top — a genuine top pick. Win or cover with place.
7
LARRIKIN PIONEER P $1.28
Saver · place
Second elect as a saver.
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBoxWinPlaceOur rate
6. CLOSING MODEL FAV TOP RATED 6 $1.90 $1.18 $3.19
7. LARRIKIN PIONEER 7 $2.65 $1.28 $3.49
2. LAST KEY 2 $10.00 $3.40 $6.70
5. IBROX MAVERICK 5 $7.50 $2.70 $7.67
1. PACIFIC TIGER 1 $17.00 $4.60 $15.18
8. FROGGY DID IT 8 $51.00 $8.50 $28.54
3. NITTY GRITTY 3 $126.00 $13.00 $52.00
Favourite record at THE GARDENS ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.90) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
<1.50 75% 95% 97
1.50–1.99 this race 57% 87% 219
2.00–2.49 40% 69% 191
2.50–3.49 29% 63% 259
3.50–4.99 28% 60% 40*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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