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DARWIN

R1 7:12 PM R2 7:31 PM R3 7:55 PM R4 8:21 PM R5 8:42 PM R6 9:01 PM R7 9:19 PM R8 9:42 PM R9 10:01 PM

Race 4

8:21 PM
537m · 8 runners
🏁 Result
1st INCREDIBLE ROGUE 📍 Place Pick
2nd STOCKMAN GEORGE
3rd RITZA DUANE
4th BIRMINGHAM
✅ Place bet — won outright — INCREDIBLE ROGUE finished 1st
Weak favourite Thin
Weak favourite. Don't back it to win — place or pass.
8
INCREDIBLE ROGUE P $1.24
place only
Weak favourite — don't back it to win. Place bet on the market's top pick is the disciplined play.
2
BING BING SECRET W $7.50
Form view · saver 4.7% above market on form
Form model rates this runner above its market price. Track+distance: 50% (4 starts) · Recent form: 42x7
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBoxWinPlaceOur rate
8. INCREDIBLE ROGUE FAV TOP RATED 8 $2.80 $1.24 $4.41
1. STOCKMAN GEORGE 1 $3.30 $1.26 $5.17
4. RITZA DUANE 4 $4.80 $1.50 $5.32
2. BING BING SECRET 2 $7.50 $2.05 $7.29
7. OUR GIRL FRANKY 7 $12.00 $2.75 $14.01
5. BIRMINGHAM 5 $16.00 $3.50 $15.86
3. EXTRA PINEAPPLE 3 $18.00 $3.70 $15.98
6. ZELDA CHAOS 6 $26.00 $4.40 $17.34
Favourite record at DARWIN ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.80) sits in the 2.50–3.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
1.50–1.99 34% 87% 38*
2.00–2.49 41% 67% 39*
2.50–3.49 this race 39% 67% 33*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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