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LAUNCESTON

R1 6:56 PM R2 7:20 PM R3 7:46 PM R4 8:04 PM R5 8:26 PM R6 8:48 PM R7 9:10 PM R8 9:28 PM R9 9:47 PM R10 10:10 PM R11 10:25 PM

Race 5

8:26 PM
278m · 8 runners
🏁 Result
1st AARIELLA'S GIRL ⭐ Best Bet
2nd 2,4
3rd MERCEDES DANGER
✅ Place bet — won outright — AARIELLA'S GIRL finished 1st
Dominant favourite Lean
Dominant favourite by price — but our model rates it worse than its price. We won't call it a win bet; see the place and value plays below.
3
AARIELLA'S GIRL P $1.08
place only ⭐ Best Bet
Dominant favourite, but our model rates it worse than its short price. Don't back it to win — take the place, where it's still strong.
6
NEWS FLASH P $1.50
Saver · place
Second elect as a saver if the favourite is rolled.
5
YES EILEEN W $7.50
Form view · saver 10.2% above market on form
Form model rates this runner above its market price. Track+distance: 55.6% (9 starts) · Recent form: 3171
Model is cooler than the market. Our ratings rate the favourite worse than its price suggests — a quiet warning that the short price may be generous to it.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBoxWinPlaceOur rate
3. AARIELLA'S GIRL FAV TOP RATED 3 $1.55 $1.08 $2.25
5. YES EILEEN 5 $7.50 $1.70 $6.98
6. NEWS FLASH 6 $6.50 $1.50 $7.58
2. GINGER RUSH 2 $7.50 $1.70 $9.10
9. MERCEDES DANGER 9 $17.00 $2.90 $18.11
4. AUSSIE PABLO 4 $26.00 $3.50 $21.79
8. BUCKLE UP MILES 8 $31.00 $4.00 $25.51
7. BRING IT 7 $31.00 $3.90 $34.17
Favourite record at LAUNCESTON ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($1.55) sits in the 1.50–1.99 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
<1.50 77% 98% 52*
1.50–1.99 this race 56% 83% 90
2.00–2.49 31% 67% 67
2.50–3.49 31% 60% 81

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
Bet responsibly · 18+ · GambleAware.