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THE GARDENS

R1 1:35 PM R2 2:02 PM R3 2:27 PM R4 2:47 PM R5 3:07 PM R6 3:24 PM R7 3:47 PM R8 4:04 PM R9 4:27 PM R10 4:44 PM R11 5:09 PM R12 5:27 PM

Race 12

5:27 PM
400m · 8 runners
🏁 Result
1st RAINING WINE
2nd LILLY MOIRA 📍 Place Pick
3rd MUM'S ON FIRE
4th MULLAWAY BUD
✅ Place bet landed — LILLY MOIRA ran a place
Weak favourite Thin
Weak favourite. Don't back it to win — place or pass.
8
LILLY MOIRA P $1.28
place only
Weak favourite — don't back it to win. Place bet on the market's top pick is the disciplined play.
Model agrees with the market. Our ratings and the price line up on the favourite — a consistent read, no hidden disagreement.
Full field & ratings ›
RunnerBoxWinPlaceOur rate
8. LILLY MOIRA FAV TOP RATED 8 $2.70 $1.28 $3.95
1. MUM'S ON FIRE 1 $4.60 $1.50 $5.68
5. RAINING WINE 5 $5.00 $1.65 $7.13
3. FROSTY DARLING 3 $6.50 $2.05 $9.33
7. THESTRAL 7 $19.00 $3.70 $11.57
6. MULLAWAY BUD 6 $11.00 $2.60 $11.64
4. NITTY GRITTY 4 $11.00 $2.60 $12.73
2. WINLOCK BOTTLES 2 $14.00 $3.10 $13.83
Favourite record at THE GARDENS ›

How the market favourite actually performs at this track, by its starting price. Win/place from settled results — the shorter the price, the more often it wins. This race's favourite ($2.70) sits in the 2.50–3.49 band, highlighted below.

Fav priceWinPlaceRaces
<1.50 76% 94% 85
1.50–1.99 55% 85% 178
2.00–2.49 40% 69% 163
2.50–3.49 this race 29% 64% 233
3.50–4.99 26% 59% 39*

Descriptive track record from settled results — independent of any tips model, not betting advice.  *small sample, read with care.

"Our rate" is our model\'s fair price. Calls combine race shape with our ratings and are tagged by confidence — they are not guarantees. We publish how these calls really perform.
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